There is only one way to stop an elite quarterback in today’s NFL: relentless pressure. It’s been the difference in the Super Bowl the past two seasons. The Rams’ ferocious defensive line sacked Joe Burrow seven times in last year’s 23-20 win. In 2020, the Buccaneers’ defense made Patrick Mahomes look pedestrian. In a season in which he surpassed 4,700 passing yards, Tampa’s defense chased Mahomes all over the field, holding the former MVP to 270 yards, zero touchdowns, and two interceptions.
The shoe could be on the other foot for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this season. Tom Brady’s decision to return pushed the Buccaneers to their rightful spot as NFC favorites in the betting market. But even the best quarterback to ever play the position isn’t impervious to pressure. Saturday night, Tampa Bay lost starting guard Aaron Stinnie for the season due to an ACL injury, delivering another blow to an interior offensive line that already lacks experience. Stinnie was part of Tampa Bay’s plan to replace both guards from last season after Ali Marpet retired and Alex Cappa left for Cincinnati in free agency. Marpet’s 82.7 overall grade was PFF’s seventh highest in the league.
Brady may be returning to the Buccaneers, but the offensive line that protected him will look much different. Here’s a look at Tampa Bay’s key losses since last season’s defeat to the Rams in the divisional round of the playoffs.
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G: Ali Marpet — retirement
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C: Ryan Jensen — knee injury, November/December return
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G: Alex Cappa — free agency
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G – Aaron Stinnie — knee injury, out for the season
The offensive line is a chain-link system, where one weakness is all it takes for defensive coordinators to attack and disrupt your whole offense. The injuries to Jensen and Stinnie now force the Bucs to move Robert Hainsey and rookie Luke Goedeke into starting roles. Hainsey has only been on the field for 10 snaps that resulted in passing plays during his rookie season. The Buccaneers’ lack of depth upfront puts their position as NFC favorites into question, opening opportunities for bettors to take advantage before the season kicks off.
Goedeke and Hainsey will need time to ramp up and gain experience, and the Bucs’ offense will feel some growing pains. Nevertheless, I will be approaching them as a “sell early” team that will likely hold value in the second half of the season. Brady will face a gauntlet of teams that can get after the quarterback in the first two months.
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Dallas: Pressure percentage of 27.6 was fourth best in the NFL last season. Defensive Rookie of the Year Micah Parsons is coming off a 13-sack season with three forced fumbles.
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New Orleans: The Saints’ defense finished eighth in sacks and went 2-0 against Brady in 2021, including a 9-0 shutout. In two meetings with Tampa Bay, New Orleans’ defense accounted for seven sacks, three interceptions and five total turnovers.
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Kansas City: Chiefs were top five in pressure rate and added DE George Karlaftis in the draft.
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Pittsburgh: The Steelers had a league-leading 55 sacks in 2021.
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L.A. Rams: The team was second in sacks with 53, led by the best defensive player in the league in Aaron Donald.
These defenses are more than capable of making Brady’s life much more difficult than it was last year, and the list doesn’t even include Baltimore or Green Bay. This isn’t a full fade on Brady, but the time is now to go after some markets that could hold value. Here are some options BetMGM is offering:
Most regular-season passing touchdowns
Brady and Justin Herbert both lead the way at +550. Herbert finished only five touchdowns shy of Brady’s league-leading mark of 43 in 2021. The opportunity is there for Herbert if Brady takes a step back. With both quarterbacks having roughly 15% implied odds, I would be much more comfortable with taking a shot on the Chargers quarterback taking another step forward in 2022, especially considering he is paired with an aggressive play-caller. Brady’s passing yards under 4,549.5 is also an option.
Mike Evans regular-season receiving yards
Evans’ receiving yardage total is currently at 1,024.5, and here is why grabbing the under is a solid play. He is by far the receiver most likely to be impacted by potential protection issues early in the season. This number sits below last season’s total of 1,035. Evans’ ADOT (average depth of target) of 13.5 almost doubles both Chris Godwin (7.3) and Cameron Brates (7.8). If Brady is forced to get rid of the ball early, it’s unlikely he will have the time to hit Evans on longer developing routes. Plus, any reduction in the offense’s overall success will ultimately lead to fewer snaps for everyone.
NFC No. 1 Seed
The Buccaneers are favorites at +300, so the other teams within the conference are worth a look. The Packers (+500), 49ers (+900), and Rams (+550) become more attractive as the injuries pile up. I’d rather fade Tampa Bay here than bet against Brady to win the conference. He has shown the ability to win the NFC as a wild-card team, but I am convinced the first half of the season will stop them from finishing with the conference’s best record.
NFC wild-card team
Here is a great example of leveraging different betting markets to find the best value. I am very high on the Saints and have viewed them as a solid play to make the playoffs. So does downgrading Tampa Bay open up value for the Saints to win the NFC South? Sure, but let’s look at it from a different angle. If New Orleans wins the division, do we really think the team with the second-best odds to win the Super Bowl falls out of the playoffs completely? So rather than wager on the Saints to win the division at +325, bet on the Buccaneers to make the postseason as a wild-card team at +550.
*Stats provided by PFF and dailyroto.com.